Driving to Yes or No: Case Study

In my last post I talked about taking a more investigative approach to growth opportunity evaluation. In this one, I’ll discuss both what it looked like leading a venture using this methodology while touching on what it meant from an executive level.

 

I had to eat my own cooking when I took a position leading a “growth opportunity” at 3M. We had adopted a phased approach to allocating budget and resources to opportunities through a venture board structure (ie: limited capital allocated to competing business plans). In the “opportunity” phase, an idea received modest funding to answer high level questions. If the opportunity proved compelling, then it could progress to being a “venture” at which point it would receive higher funding for a pilot or launch year. After that a division would have to own the P&L. I think it’s a good process. Divisions compete for funding new ideas, but take it seriously because they know they will eventually have to own the financial results.

 

My experience was with a new business format opportunity based on an aftermarket car care model that quietly developed in Asia. One of the wonderful things about a diversified global business like 3M’s is that each country unit has incentives to develop innovative new business models based on local market conditions.

 

My challenge was to determine whether we could take our traditionally product based business and brand into retail “do-it for me” services. Our product line included window tint, paint protection film, waxes, polishes etc. This was clearly a global question, in part because 3M China had developed successful 3M branded service centers with partners and also because the Asian car markets were all growing so aggressively with first time, inexperienced car owners.

 

I developed my “issue tree” outlining what I thought the big questions were and also worked through a reverse P&L as well as assumptions list (see last post).  Among my major assumptions (in no particular order) were that 1) we could develop the skills and knowledge necessary to win, 2) that we could have a broad enough portfolio to be relevant to consumers, 3) that brand mattered 4) we could hit defined revenue and income targets and 5) that we had sufficient alignment globally to get it done internally.

 

I went through three phases. The first was a study phase that cost us largely my time and a little research. We easily passed the hurdle at this phase gate. I think of this type of review as passing “the laugh test”. We had executive support and they were interested in the opportunity, so this gate was more of a check in.

 

For the second phase, we needed to do much more work on business model, detailed market understanding and a risk assessment. As a part of each gate, you have to define success metrics and detailed plan and budget for the next phase. Part of my plan included Michele, the kids and I moving to Shanghai, China for an extended stay in 2006 to understand the Asian business.

 

To short cut the better part of a year’s work, here’s what I determined and why I think the process and methodology was a good one. In the end, I recommended a retrenchment of the existing opportunity in China and placing better controls on its use of brand and avoidance of the franchise law for several reasons:

 

1.      The team had been very creative and had excellent results, but the Chinese regulatory environment related to franchising changed in 2005 in ways that were disadvantageous to potential franchisors. Note that at the time KFC and McDonald’s didn’t franchise there either. They owned.

2.      Direct ownership did not seem viable to me given the speed of change in the market, our conservatism operationally and financially and our lack of direct experience in retail services. In addition, we couldn’t find a viable partner or acquisition target.

3.      The reality of company politics regarding brand and legal issues, lack of internal alignment globally and several other internal factors told me that this was not do-able for us.

 

There is a lot more detail than this, but fundamentally I didn’t see it happening for this opportunity. Here’s why I think the process worked.

 

1.      Two years prior to implementing this process I think this would have gotten potentially large funding and failed slowly and painfully. It was sexy, represented “breakthrough thinking” and “business model innovation” and all sorts of other applicable buzzwords.

2.      It could have been sold well and gone OK for a few years until it fell under its own weight. Typically, to be cleaned up by the next manager as the first one would have moved on to bigger things based on the buzz from their cool work. (No one ever really knows the financials of someone else’s business)

3.      We got to a “quality” no, based on data and as a result executives didn’t need to revisit the question. Note here that I always could make the math work. The sheer growth in China could carry very conservative assumptions to a positive financial case. I recommended not proceeding because of the work around the “softer” assumptions that were critical to success.

4.      Corporate was happy that a real effort had been made to answer key questions credibly and reliably.

5.      Another benefit of the process to the company was exposing talent to senior management in bake-offs that exposed the quality of people’s business acumen and drive. It highlighted how many “administrators” versus “leaders” there were.

 

In the end, we went forward as a business unit with a “federated” approach globally while laying out guidelines and serving as a knowledge and best practice sharing hub. Each country took its own approach within guidelines that we laid out. We didn’t try to force a uniform process or business model on each country unit and as a result, the business has continued to grow across 3M. We learned a great deal that has infused other business decisions as well, including some significant acquisitions (lesson: we needed other’s existing expertise and portfolio to be successful quickly). We were fortunate to have a leader who was pro-active in learning and then taking action.

 

The few caveats I have include:

1.      No process is a substitute for talent. A poor team will kill a great opportunity. This is a place to put your best people, not turf out your problems.

2.      It doesn’t work if opportunities aren’t protected. Nothing kills innovation or creativity like strangling it when things get tough.

 

I think this process is a good one. My only caution is to not fall so in love with a process or set of tools that you check your brain at the door.

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6 Responses to Driving to Yes or No: Case Study

  1. Gitte says:

    Hi Phil,
    Interesting read, thanks! – especially in light of our work together, I can’t help but be critical about how much we contributed to the three questions you’ve outlined here – seems we went far into outlining how and what, and perhaps skipped over some fundamentals? I’d enjoy any thoughts you have about working with consultants, how to use them, what kind and when, and what seems to always be missing…

    Best,
    Gitte

  2. Gitte – Great to hear from you. Hope life is well in Copenhagen. I’ll write a longer post soon about using consultants. It’s a rich topic. They are very valuable when used properly and a tremendous drain of capital and a time sink if misapplied. I think the work you did for us was on point. In my “issue tree” or problem definition, you were working on what I would call a sub-branch. I didn’t expect you to answer the big business model question, I expected (and got) a vision for what multiple scenarios could look like. We did a ton of math internally describing the financials and other assumptions, factoring IDEO’s work into our assessment. I did separate work around market sizing, franchise laws etc. I thought the project was useful and it helped us get to a data driven answer.

    Hope all’s well. Phil

  3. Dustin Huibregtse says:

    Hey Phil,

    I tried to find this blog via Google and I couldn’t find it. Google is getting better at looking up blogs, but it isn’t fully there yet. I can help you with getting it submitted to Google if you’d like.

    Let me know,

    Dustin

  4. Dustin – That would be great. What do I need to do?

  5. Dustin Huibregtse says:

    Sure I can give you the quick “I hope you can figure it out” version:
    1) Go to google.com and get open up a gmail account.
    2)After you do this go to “My Account”
    3) In the lower right, click on “Webmaster Tools”
    4)You will then be able to add your site there. From here it gets a tad more complicated because you may need to submit some additional information to Google…but I would be happy to meet with you to help out. Let me know.

    Dustin

  6. RyanB says:

    Hey Im the newbie here, just wanted to introduce myself, I’m Ken.
    This is a great board I have checked in from time to time and I think Im ready to participate and contribute with you guys.
    I thought about starting my own board but Im glad I found this one instead. Great Info!
    Peace....

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